Can Federer win AO19?

With Djokovic having recently being beaten by Roberto Bautista Agut and Nadal questionable for the Australian Open, I have to open up the possibility of Federer winning yet another Australian Open.

I had written Federer off after a horrendous 2018 (not statistically), especially with his body either not allowing him physically or diminishing his confidence to execute everything that he did in 2017 that made it the best tennis he’s ever played.
Having watched him play matches in the Hopman Cup this last week, he has seemed to flip the switch back to 2017 Federer, almost completely. The only aspect lacking seems to be hitting more flat backhands on return of serve, but naturally Federer will keep slicing until he regains more confidence through baseline rallies, where he seems to be ripping his single-hander.

Djokovic may have been a tad fatigued or simply outplayed against RBA, but after looking like his usual unstoppable self I now have doubts of crowning him the automatic 2019 Australian Open champ, especially if fitness is pending. If he has a lot of court time before the 2nd week, his body may not hold up.
Nadal’s body almost definitely won’t hold up. Looking at his 2018 campaign we can see that Nadal struggled to even compete on hardcourt, with his body giving way most of the time even if he made a run deep into the tournament. With Rafa pulling out of Brisbane, that’s telling me that he’s hoping to just compete in Melbourne, let alone think about winning the title. Even if he plays and makes it into the second week, his fitness will remain questionable.

So now, similar to 2018, does this make Federer destined to be the Australian Open champion by default? I say if he’s playing at the very solid and consistent level he is at now, then yes. We could see players like Cilic and Anderson make a deep run by default too, but as shown in 2018, Federer may just have to turn up healthy and play just reasonably well to claim another slam.

Tim